A Very Neutral Holiday To You!
Total At Checkout:
Recent headlines net sentiment
4 Positive
2 Negative
6 Neutral
KPIs:
- Retail growth ok but softer
- Manufacturing mixed at best
- Confidence weakening
Stay Tuned:
In the next edition of The Register
Lets get those first holiday numbers in and take a look!
4 Positive Headlines
Recent headlines indicating a strong retail market
“American Express Moves Beyond Small Business Saturday”Reuters (11/18) Consumer surveys and AmEx investments signal confidence in local retail demand.
“How iHerb is leading the trillion-dollar wellness market”NRF (11/12) “Analysis-As Wellness Trends Go Upscale, Nestle’s Mass-Market Vitamins Lose Some Shine”MediaPost (11/14) Wellness spending grows as consumers trade up to science-backed products and premium brands.
“J. Crew’s Tech-Led Comeback”Forbes (11/21) Personalization and omnichannel progress reveal shoppers still spending on branded fashion.
2 Negative Headlines
Recent headlines that may indicate retail weakness
“Target cuts prices on 3,000 items as affordability crisis brews”axios (11/11) Price cuts as consumers trade down and food insecurity rises…
“WH Smith CEO exits after accounting failures slash profit outlook” Guardian (11/19) Long-term growth and expansion opportunity projections evaporate with accounting failure.
6 Neutral Headlines
Recent headlines that are pretty so-so for the market
“At New York flagship, Macy’s bets new luxury beauty counters will draw holiday shoppers” costar (11/25) “LVMH Strengthens Ties With China, Celebrates Sustainability at CIIE” yahoo/wwd (11/6) Selective investment expansion and success, but broader caution, not demand.
“Kroger seeks e-commerce profit boost by closing distribution hubs” CSA (11/18) While growing, mix of expanding and cutting shows intense margin pressures.
“NRF expects robust spending during the holiday season” NRF (11/13) Growth remains goods-led while value concerns, sentiment, hiring, and down trends linger under the surface.
“Target Zeroes in on Fandom to Drive Black Friday Traffic” Retail TouchPoints (11/18) Experiments on hype cycles while down on essentials won’t lift fundamentals.
“Holiday and Seasonal Trends” NRF (Nov) Record traffic hides trade downs and cost anxieties shaping seasonal behavior.
Key Metrics
1) Retail continues to grow, though modestly
- Retail Sales YoY: +4.3 percent
- Consistent with long-term demand trends
- Retail Sales Ex-Autos MoM: +0.3 percent
- Underlying consumer spending remains positive, even in a slower month
- Retail Sales Mix
- Gains concentrated in everyday necessity categories, showing consumer prioritization, not collapse
2) However…manufacturing trends flash caution lights
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.2
- Ninth straight month of contraction; employment and new orders weak
- Record finished-goods inventory build
- Signals sales expectations are outpacing reality
- Input inflation still elevated
- Tariff-driven costs could feed higher retail prices
3) Forward indicators show uncertainty
- Modest new order growth from S&P PMI is not broad-based
- Business confidence improves for manufacturers but not enough to call a turning point
Net takeaway: Consumer demand continues to support retail, but the goods-production pipeline lacks confidence that spending will stay strong.
| Metric | Last | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales YoY | 4.3% | 5.0% |
| Retail Sales MoM | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Retail Sales Control Group MoM | -0.1% | 0.6% |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.2 | 52.5 |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 48.2 | 48.7 |
| Finished-Goods Inventories (trend) | Surging | Surging |
| Manufacturing Production YoY | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| Manufacturing Business Confidence | Highest since June | Improving |
| Input Cost Inflation | Elevated | Higher earlier |
| Output Prices (Selling Prices) | Rising moderately | Rising faster earlier |
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Sources
- Positive
- https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/410687/american-express-moves-beyond-small-business-satur.html
- https://nrf.com/podcast/how-iherb-is-leading-the-trillion-dollar-wellness-market
- https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-11-18/analysis-as-wellness-trends-go-upscale-nestles-mass-market-vitamins-lose-some-shine
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciapark/2025/11/18/how-j-crews-cio-used-ai-to-supercharge-the-brands-comeback/
- Negative
- https://www.axios.com/2025/11/11/target-price-cuts-food-prices-affordability-crisis
- https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/19/wh-smith-ceo-accounting-error-profits-carl-cowling
- Neutral
- https://www.costar.com/article/1493181264/at-new-york-flagship-macys-bets-new-luxury-beauty-counters-will-draw-holiday-shoppers
- https://chainstoreage.com/kroger-seeks-e-commerce-profit-boost-closing-distribution-hubs
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lvmh-strengthens-ties-china-celebrates-130639231.html
- https://nrf.com/blog/nrf-expects-robust-spending-during-the-holiday-season
- https://www.retailtouchpoints.com/features/news-briefs/target-zeroes-in-on-fandom-to-drive-black-friday-traffic
- KPIs:
- U.S. Census Bureau
- S&P Global