The Register Rundown Video
Your periodical “ring up” (see what we did?) of headlines and KPIs relevant to anyone who makes, distributes or sells STUFF!
7 Positive
Recent headlines indicating a strong retail market
“NRF Survey: Valentine’s Day Spending Reaches Record $27.5 Billion”NRF (1/28) Gains in every segment and a new record…need we say more?
“Watches of Switzerland hails strong festive performance” “NRF: Retail sales fall in January, but show strong year-over-year gains” “Tech, trade and taxes: What’s impacting retail in 2025” Retail Gazette (2/7) Chain Store Age (2/10) NRF (2/5) While still skeptical of recovery, revenue growth + growth acquisitions + demand beating supply + strong holidays = a nice win
“Simon, Shopify Team Up to Help Digital Brands Enter Brick-and-Mortar Retail”Retail TouchPoints (2/7) Placing bets on growth and fast-tracked store openings signal expansion
“Steve Madden to Buy UK Shoe Brand Kurt Geiger for $360 Million” Bloomberg (2/13) Acquisition signals confidence, growth and international expansion
“Fashion’s most hated garment — the skinny jean — is making a comeback”CNBC (2/8)Maybe sorta just a fun one, but if the trend fully materializes, it will drive new apparel and footwear purchases, benefiting the sector
1 Negative
Recent headlines that may indicate retail weakness
“At least half of WH Smith stores could close under a new owner, experts say”The Guardian (2/9) Slow foot traffic, “run to the bone”, likely store closures. An acquisition off the scrap heap.
3 Neutral
Recent headlines that are pretty so-so for the market
“Gucci sales slump continues as market awaits turnaround”MSN (2/11) Sales plummeting, China market hurting, but CEO says that’s changing, and competitors are doing…ok
“Best Buy CEO Corie Barry on brand refresh, bringing purpose to life” NRF (2/6) Consumer tech burnout, and unclear if its a desperation pivot or confident expansion efforts, but there is investment here
“Amazon opens beauty and personal care store in Italy as part of brick-and-mortar expansion”CNBC (2/11) While tempting to call it a bet on market growth, this a small one, with a fraught history for Amazon, and their growth isn’t always good for retail
Key Metrics
Retail Sales Performance: U.S. retail sales fell 0.9% MoM in January, much worse than the expected 0.1% drop, after December’s 0.7% gain.
- Severe weather and LA fires weighed on consumer spending.
- Sporting goods (-4.6%) and motor vehicles (-2.8%) saw the biggest declines.
- However…Sales rose at gas stations (+0.9%), restaurants (+0.9%), and general merchandise (+0.5%).
Holiday Growth Highlights:Sales excluding food services, autos, building materials, and gas fell 0.8%, a key indicator for GDP.
- Retail sales data is not adjusted for inflation, meaning real spending may be even weaker.
- However…Retail sales are still up 4.2% YoY, though down from 4.4% in December.
- This remains below the long-term average of 4.73%.
- Growth is still steady compared to the 3.7% forecast.
Conclusion: On the net, definitely “mixed” at best, but there are some little sparks of resilience
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Sources
- Positive
- https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-survey-valentine-s-day-spending-reaches-record-27-5-billion
- https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2025/02/watches-switzerland-confident/
- https://www.retailtouchpoints.com/topics/omnichannel-alignment/simon-shopify-team-up-to-help-digital-brands-enter-brick-and-mortar-retail
- https://nrf.com/blog/tech-trade-and-taxes-whats-impacting-retail-in-2025
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-13/steve-madden-to-buy-uk-shoe-brand-kurt-geiger-for-360-million?leadSource=uverify%20wall
- https://chainstoreage.com/nrf-retail-sales-fall-january-show-strong-year-over-year-gains
- https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/08/skinny-jeans-are-making-a-comeback.html
- Negative
- https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/09/at-least-half-of-wh-smith-high-street-stores-could-close-under-a-new-owner
- Neutral
- https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/gucci-sales-slump-continues-as-market-awaits-turnaround/ar-AA1yOE1z
- https://nrf.com/blog/best-buy-ceo-corie-barry-on-brand-refresh-bringing-purpose-to-life
- https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/11/amazon-opens-its-first-beauty-and-personal-care-store-in-italy.html
- KPIs:
- U.S. Census Bureau