Neutral Teeters on Negative…Watch Out!
Total At Checkout:
Recent headlines net sentiment
1 Positive
3 Negative
6 Neutral
KPIs:
- Retail holding, but slowing
- Manufacturing contracting
- Confidence fragile
- The abyss is calling
Stay Tuned:
In the next edition of The Register
On a knife’s edge and starting to lose balance, what’s next?
1* Positive Headlines
Recent headlines indicating a strong retail market
“First Look: Me+Em Makes Its West Coast Debut With Beverly Hills Flagship“*WWD (1/4) While still pretty niche-y and brand-specific, we suppose this is confident investment in expansion and growth.*
*This headline was a topic of hot debate as to whether it qualified as positive on the retail market or not, but ultimately we place it here, narrowly missing this being the first ever Register with no positive indicators at all.
3 Negative Headlines
Recent headlines that may indicate retail weakness
“10 trends and predictions for retail in 2026”NRF (1/7) Green shoots in resilient categories or AI outweighed by pressure building across labor, margins, and consumer confidence.
“IKEA battles Amazon, Temu as market shifts bring pain to flat-pack dynasty”Bloomberg (1/5), “IKEA to Close Seven Stores in China as Part of New Focus on Smaller Outlets”WSJ (1/7)Defensive pricing and restructuring signal prolonged pressure, not a temporary cycle.
6 Neutral Headlines
Recent headlines that are pretty so-so for the market
“10 trends and predictions for retail in 2026” NRF (1/7), “CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor’s November Data Shows Strong Year-Over-Year Growth in First Half of Holiday Season” NRF / CNBC (12/12) Retail demand persists, yet “volatility” and “resilience” replace “confidence” as the tone.
“5 Retail CEO Changes We’re Watching in 2026” dbbnwa (1/7) While it sounds like the sky is falling, mostly internal succession signals some satisfaction with the current course.
“Millie Bobby Brown Debuts Exclusive Fashion Line at Walmart” WWD (1/7) Tactical optimism inside a neutral market backdrop, and consumer appetite only for value.
“Target Bolsters Wellness Offerings With Thousands of New Products” Storebrands (1/7), “How Lego Designed Its New Interactive Smart Brick“ Fast Company (1/6) Retailers lean into resilient categories and rare bright spots as demand shifts, not expands.
“Next Lifts Profit Forecast Again on Strong Holiday Sales” BoF (1/6) Even this headline is misleading…future outlook peppered with warnings and tempering.
Key Metrics
1) Retail demand remains positive, but is clearly slowing
- Retail Sales YoY: +3.5 percent (Oct 2025)
- Growth remains positive but decelerated from September, pointing to cooling momentum rather than expansion.
- Retail Sales Ex-Autos MoM: +0.4 percent
- Core consumer spending improved month over month, a healthier signal than the flat headline number.
- Retail Sales MoM: 0.0 percent
- Flat growth underscores limited near-term acceleration and a cautious consumer stance.
2) However…manufacturing continues to contract and signals downstream risk
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: 47.9 (Dec 2025)
- Third straight month of contraction and fastest pace of decline this cycle.
- Manufacturing Inventories Index: 45.2
- Pullback from November indicates manufacturers adjusting to softer-than-expected sales.
- Manufacturing Prices Index: 58.5
- Elevated input costs remain a margin and pricing risk for retail.
3) Forward indicators are mixed, not decisive
- ISM New Orders: 47.7 | Backlog: 45.8
- Incremental improvement, but still firmly in contraction territory.
- Customers’ Inventories: 43.3 (too low)
- Suggests potential restocking ahead, but requires sustained demand to materialize.
- Consumer Sentiment (Michigan): 54.0
- Second month of improvement, led by lower-income households, yet sentiment remains well below year-ago levels.
Net takeaway: Retail demand is still supporting topline growth, but at a slowing pace, while manufacturing contraction and elevated costs signal rising risk that goods supply and pricing pressures could weigh on retail performance in the months ahead. Boy that abyss is sure creeping closer.
| Metric | Last | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales YoY | 3.5% | 4.2% |
| Retail Sales MoM | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48.2 |
| ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 47.7 | 47.4 |
| ISM Manufacturing Backlog of Orders | 45.8 | 44.0 |
| ISM Manufacturing Inventories | 45.2 | 48.9 |
| ISM Manufacturing Prices | 58.5 | 58.5 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 54.0 | 52.9 |
| Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4% | 3.2% |
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Sources
- Positive
- https://uk.news.yahoo.com/first-look-em-makes-west-050100270.html
- Negative
- https://nrf.com/blog/nrf-experts-on-what-to-watch-in-2026
- https://www.dailynews.com/2026/01/05/ikea-battles-amazon-and-temu-as-market-shifts-bring-pain/
- https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/ikea-to-close-seven-stores-in-china-as-part-of-new-focus-on-smaller-outlets-7cc58ce7
- Neutral
- https://nrf.com/blog/10-trends-and-predictions-for-retail-in-2026
- https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/cnbc-nrf-retail-monitor-s-november-data-shows-strong-year-over-year-growth-in-first-half-of-holiday-season
- https://www.dbbnwa.com/articles/5-retail-ceo-changes-were-watching-in-2026/
- https://wwd.com/fashion-news/fashion-features/millie-bobby-brown-walmart-fashion-brand-mills-shopping-1238440302/
- https://storebrands.com/target-bolsters-wellness-offerings-thousands-new-products
- https://www.fastcompany.com/91469438/how-lego-designed-its-new-interactive-smart-brick
- https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/retail/next-lifts-profit-forecast-again-on-strong-holiday-sales/
- KPIs:
- https://www.census.gov/
- https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public
- http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/