The Register Rundown Video
Your periodical “ring up” (see what we did?) of headlines and KPIs relevant to anyone who makes, distributes or sells STUFF!
2 Positive
Recent headlines indicating a strong retail market
“A new Gap x Dôen collab is on its way, and this time it has menswear”Fast Company (4/29) “JC Penney Taps Ashley Graham For New Plus-Size Line”MarketingDaily (4/29) Could just be retailers retailing, but it’s a little growth & expansion!
6 Negative
Recent headlines that may indicate retail weakness
“Small retailers sound the alarm on broad-based tariffs”NRF (4/29) “Tariffs Threaten the American Dream”NRF (4/25) Tariffs are hurting small retailers, with costs rising and consumer demand dropping.
“Domino’s Pizza US sales dip as inflation, economic uncertainty hurt demand” MSN (4/28) “Lower-income consumers tempered spending.” Nuf said
“Colgate-Palmolive Cuts Outlook as Economic Uncertainty Spooks Shoppers”WSJ (4/25) Tariff costs not made up by single-digit growth.
“UK’s Deliveroo gets $3.6 billion buyout proposal from DoorDash”MSN (4/25) Buyout proposal is a sign of industry consolidation, Deliveroo’s weakening, rather than growth.
“Why Many Online Stores Fail—And How To Beat The Odds”forbes (4/25) “90% of online stores fail”…there was a day this was exciting boom territory.
2 Neutral
Recent headlines that are pretty so-so for the market
“Exclusive: Walmart expands support for American-made products’” axios (4/29) While its is future investment, it is only happening in protection from tariffs hitting their bottom line.
“Primark UK sales hit by consumer caution as international markets drive growth” Reuters (4/25) Weak UK sales are offset by strong international performance.
Key Metrics
Retail Sales (March data): We wait with baited breath for April’s numbers.
- Retail sales jumped 1.5% MoM, the strongest since Jan 2023.
- Excluding autos, still a solid +0.6% MoM, indicating broad-based strength.
- YoY retail sales up 4.9%, accelerating from 3.9% in February, and on an constant upward tear since last Aug.
- However…The March surge was likely pulled forward due to tariff fears—unsustainable boost.
- For example, March growth heavily influenced by auto purchases.
- Its likely this becomes a slump in the coming months.
Manufacturing PMI (April, S&P Global):US mfg. is one of your main options to combat tariffs…this paltry growth isn’t offsetting all the other negative signs, at least not yet….
- Stayed above 50 at 50.2, marking 4th straight month of expansion.
- New orders rose again, suggesting forward demand remains healthy.
- Domestic demand is the driver, which aligns with strength in US retail consumption.
- However…The expansion is marginal; output fell for a second month.
- Export orders plunged, and business confidence dropped to its lowest in 10 months.
| US Manufacturing | Last | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | 50.2 |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 48.70 | 49.00 |
| Factory Orders MoM | 4.30 | 0.50 |
| Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -35.80 | -16.30 |
| Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | -5.00 | 1.00 |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | -8.10 | -20.00 |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -26.40 | 12.50 |
Conclusion: US Manufacturing will need to grow a lot more than this, for a looong time if tariffs are to have their desired impact.
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Sources
- Positive
- https://www.fastcompany.com/91325176/gap-doen-collection-2025?partner=rss
- https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/405436/jc-penney-taps-ashley-graham-for-new-plus-size-lin.html?edition=138270
- Negative
- https://nrf.com/blog/small-retailers-sound-the-alarm-on-broad-based-tariffs
- https://nrf.com/advocacy/policy-issues/tariffs/tariffs-threaten-the-american-dream
- https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/economy/domino-s-pizza-us-sales-dip-as-inflation-economic-uncertainty-hurt-demand/ar-AA1DMYgQ
- https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/colgate-palmolive-cuts-earnings-outlook-on-tariffs-427009ab
- https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/uks-deliveroo-gets-36-billion-buyout-proposal-from-doordash/ar-AA1DDcJY
- https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesagencycouncil/2025/04/25/why-many-online-stores-fail-and-how-to-beat-the-odds/
- Neutral
- https://www.axios.com/2025/04/29/walmart-products-made-america-small-business-program
- https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2025/04/primark-sees-uk-decline/
- KPIs:
- U.S. Census Bureau
- S&P Global