The Downturn Deepens…
Total At Checkout:
Recent headlines net sentiment
6 Positive
19 Negative
6 Neutral
KPIs:
- Demand concentrates, narrows
- Closures accelerate
- Value replaces growth
- Downturn deepens
Stay Tuned:
In the next edition of The Register
As slowness sharpens, who will fall next?
6 Positive Headlines
Recent headlines indicating a strong retail market
Holiday KPIs generally indicate good demand!
- “CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor’s December Data Shows Strong Holiday Season Spending” (NRF) 1/12
- “Pound Rises After Upbeat U.K. Retail Sales Data” (RTTNews) 1/23
- “Shopify’s Black Friday-Cyber Monday sales surged 27% despite brief site outage” (Retail Brew) 12/9
Bullish bets in segments: shoes, value, physical books
- “With Foot Locker in trouble, JD is set to pounce in the U.S.” (Fortune) 1/27
- “The Supply Side: Sam’s Club changes, China market, cake decorating and other 2025 news” (talkbusiness) 1/25
- “Why Half Price Books is betting on strong holiday sales” (Retail Brew) 12/2
19 Negative Headlines
Recent headlines that may indicate retail weakness
Store closures and liquidations accelerate across mid-market retail
- “Patriotic retail chain closes stores, begins liquidation” (TheStreet) 1/28
- “National retail chain closing its clothing stores across LA, including at the Riverwalk outlets” (nola) 1/27
- “Allbirds becomes latest retailer to close brick-and-mortar stores in shift to online focus” (CNBC) 1/28
- “Popular convenience store chain dissapearing after sale” (TheStreet) 1/25
Luxury and premium categories face demand fatigue
- “Luxury Investors Eye Tough Earnings Season After Stock Selloff” (BoF) 1/27
- “LVMH’s Watches Unit Is Under a Cloud of Uncertainty. What Happens Next?” (BoF) 1/21
Cost pressure forces defensive restructuring, not growth
- “Why Almost Every Brand Is Moving Upmarket” (BoF) 1/19
- “Macy’s to lay off nearly 1,000 at Connecticut fulfillment center” (Retail Dive) 1/20
- “Kroger sells Vitacost as it sharpens focus on core grocery business” (Grocery Dive) 1/9
- “Amazon is ending its palm ID system for retail, Amazon One, as it closes physical stores” (GeekWire) 1/28
Grocery, discount cracks widen under inflation pressure
- “Dollar Tree faces troubling retail trends this year” (TheStreet) 1/23
- “Raley’s to shutter 2 California stores” (Grocery Dive) 1/23
- “Lidl US CEO out” (Grocery Dive) 1/21
Macro outlook turns cautious, not expansionary
- “2026 Retail Industry Global Outlook” (Deloitte) 1/8
- “6 retail trends to watch in 2026” (Retail Dive) 1/8
- “What’s up with department stores?” (Retail Dive) 1/22
Beauty and specialty brands lose financial footing
- “EXCLUSIVE: Pat McGrath Labs Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, Auction Canceled” (WWD) 1/26
- “Kering Appoints Chief Commercial Officer” (WWD) 1/20
Legislation aims to help hard-hit family budgets
- “Legislation introduced in Maryland to prevent dynamic grocery store pricing” (CBS) 1/20
6 Neutral Headlines
Recent headlines that are pretty so-so for the market
Growth redistributes to scale leaders without expanding total demand
- “Amazon takes aim at Walmart crown in $883 billion battle” (TheStreet) 1/26
- “Temu taps Shopify sellers for future growth” (Retail Brew) 12/19
Good headlines hide lots of doubt in the stats underneath
- “Loop retail vacancy rate falls again, as State Street shows signs of life” (The Real Deal) 1/30
- “Nordstrom to move downtown Seattle Rack store to historic building” (Retail Dive) 1/22
Holiday ecommerce grows, but momentum lags history
- “Ecommerce sales growth slows in November 2025” (Digital Commerce 360) 1/20
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Sources
- Positive
- https://www.rttnews.com/3613049/pound-rises-after-upbeat-u-k-retail-sales-data.aspx
- https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/cnbc-nrf-retail-monitor-s-december-data-shows-strong-holiday-season-spending
- https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2025/12/09/shopify-s-black-friday-cyber-monday-sales-surged-27-despite-brief-site-outage
- https://fortune.com/2026/01/27/sneakers-retail-jd-foot-locker/
- https://talkbusiness.net/2026/01/the-supply-side-sams-club-changes-china-market-cake-decorating-and-other-2025-news/
- https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2025/12/02/why-half-price-books-is-betting-on-strong-holiday-sales
- Negative
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/department-store-outlook-survival-billions-sales/809523/
- https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/maryland-legislation-dynamic-retail-pricing-technology/
- https://www.thestreet.com/retail/another-convenience-store-brand-pops-mart-disappearing
- https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/maryland-legislation-dynamic-retail-pricing-technology/
- https://www.thestreet.com/retail/worrisome-retail-trends-flagged-at-dollar-tree
- https://www.thestreet.com/retail/another-convenience-store-brand-pops-mart-disappearing
- https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/retail-distribution-industry-outlook.html
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/retail-trends-to-watch-2026/808341/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/allbirds-stores-retail.html
- https://www.geekwire.com/2026/amazon-is-ending-its-palm-id-system-for-retail-amazon-one-as-it-closes-physical-stores/
- https://www.thestreet.com/retail/patriotic-retail-chain-closes-stores-begins-liquidation
- https://www.nola.com/news/business/national-retail-chain-closing-its-clothing-stores-across-la-including-at-the-riverwalk-outlets/article_deb1c4b5-23f7-4d87-a8c7-f4bc68d50859.html
- https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/luxury/luxury-investors-eye-tough-earnings-season-after-stock-selloff/
- https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/retail/the-state-of-fashion-2026-report-brand-elevation-pricing-strategy-value-mid-market/
- https://www.businessoffashion.com/briefings/luxury/lvmh-watch-week-milan-tag-heuer-hublot-zenith/
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/kroger-sells-vitacost/809221/
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/lidl-us-ceo-joel-rampoldt-departs/810123/
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/raleys-companies-store-closures-roseville-moutain-view-california-nob-hill-foods/810224/
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/department-store-outlook-survival-billions-sales/809523/
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/macys-layoffs-cheshire-connecticut-fulfillment-center/809837/
- https://wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/beauty-features/pat-mcgrath-labs-chapter-11-bankruptcy-auction-cancelled-1238514091/
- https://wwd.com/business-news/human-resources/kering-chief-commercial-officer-de-meo-1238463967/
- Neutral
- https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/monthly-online-retail-sales/
- https://www.thestreet.com/retail/amazon-targets-walmart-crown-in-883-billion-grocery-battle
- https://therealdeal.com/chicago/2026/01/30/loop-retail-vacancy-ticks-down-again/
- https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2025/12/19/temu-taps-shopify-sellers-for-future-growth
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/department-store-nordstrom-moves-downtown-seattle-rack-store-historic-building/810220/