The Numbers Say Growth. The Consumer Says Caution…
September lands positive at +5, with strong national sales data and continued investment in stores, categories, and expansion. But consumers are increasingly value-focused, grocery unit demand is weak, and tariffs and operating costs keep pressure elevated.
Total At Checkout:
Recent headlines net sentiment
12 Positive
7 Negative
11 Neutral
KPIs:
- Sales still strong
- Value-seeking grows
- Grocery units weaken
- A weak and cautious +5
Stay Tuned:
In the next edition of The Register
What will holiday season proper hold?
12 Positive Headlines
Recent headlines indicating a strong retail market
Topline retail data remains convincingly positive
- Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Latest Report (Census) 9/16
- US Retail Sales Top Expectations (TE) 9/16
- United States Retail Sales YoY (TE) 9/16
Expansion capital is still flowing into stores
- Harris Teeter to spend $253M to upgrade, expand Charlotte-area stores (GD) 9/16
- Sheetz to enter Indiana; plans 100 stores over 10 years (CSA) 9/4
- Cava debuts in Minnesota with milestone opening (CSA) 9/24
Holiday demand still inspires early investment
- Best Buy launches holiday gifting center earlier than ever (RD) 9/14
Consumers still spend on accessible indulgence and identity
- Academy Sports is betting 200 Ariat shop-in-shops can turn Western wear into a bigger business (RB) 9/21
- This fragrance CEO says perfume’s popularity is the new ‘lipstick effect’ (RB) 9/21
- Liberty Opens a Second Jewelry Hall in Response to Customers’ Love of Fashion, Self-expression (WWD) 9/15
Grocery operators keep finding selective growth
- Natural Grocers eyes Texas for long-term growth (GD) 9/17
- Aldi to roll out first ready-made meals line (GD) 9/22
7 Negative Headlines
Recent headlines that may indicate retail weakness
Tariffs and disruption squeeze costs across retail
- What affects prices at small retail businesses? (NRF) 9/18
- Disruption is the new supply chain normal (NRF) 9/9
- Tariffs (NRF) 9/9
Affordability pressure is reshaping grocery demand
- Instacart and DoorDash wrestle with online grocery’s growing affordability problem (GD) 9/24
- The Friday Checkout: Kroger looks to energize its low-price image (GD) 9/18
Demand weakness is turning into lost volume and failures
- August was ‘a very tough month’ for grocery unit sales (GD) 9/17
- J. Peterman appears to have folded (RD) 9/2
11 Neutral Headlines
Recent headlines that are pretty so-so for the market
Shoppers keep spending, but increasingly around budgets
- Retail and Shopping: Essential data and insights (Ipsos) 9/18
- Most Americans are trying to save money, and it’s changing the way consumers shop (RB) 9/9
- Survey: Holiday shopping begins early for large number of consumers (CSA) 9/11
Halloween demand holds while value-seeking dominates
- NRF Halloween Survey Shows Consumer Spending Expected to Reach $13.5 Billion (NRF) 9/22
- Inside this year’s Halloween spending trends (NRF) 9/23
- Halloween shoppers are shopping early, seeking low-cost and analog options (RB) 9/23
Digital channels expand without proving market growth
- DoorDash Hands Brands Live Shelf Data and Retail Insights (PYMNTS) 9/23
- Costco now offers nationwide delivery on Uber and DoorDash (RD) 9/21
Company-specific signals remain too mixed for direction
- Petco loses millions due to loyalty program (RD) 9/4
- Inside the market where Kroger and Giant Eagle will likely be under the antitrust microscope (GD) 9/17
- The Friday Checkout: Erewhon presses ahead with its promise of a ‘radiant lifestyle’ (GD) 9/4
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Sources
Positive
- https://www.census.gov/mtis/current/index.html
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/best-buy-early-holiday-gifting-center/830274/
- https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/academy-sports-is-betting-200-ariat-shop-in-shops-can-turn-western-wear-into-a-bigger-business
- https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/this-fragrance-ceo-says-perfumes-popularity-is-the-new-lipstick-effect
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/natural-grocers-texas-reincorporation-delaware/830634/
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/harris-teeter-store-upgrades-expansion-charlotte-north-carolina/830504/
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/aldi-launches-first-ready-made-meals/830985/
- https://chainstoreage.com/sheetz-enter-indiana-plans-100-stores-over-10-years
- https://chainstoreage.com/cava-debuts-minnesota-milestone-opening
- https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales/news/584234
- https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales-annual
- https://wwd.com/business-news/retail/liberty-opens-second-jewelry-hall-response-customer-demand-1239235005/
Negative
- https://nrf.com/advocacy/policy-issues/tariffs
- https://nrf.com/blog/what-affects-prices-at-small-retail-businesses
- https://nrf.com/blog/disruption-is-the-new-supply-chain-normal
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/j-peterman-appears-to-have-folded/829323/
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/instacart-doordash-tackle-online-grocery-affordability/831246/
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/the-friday-checkout-kroger-red-bull-pricing/830708/
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/august-tough-month-grocery-unit-sales-perishables/830644/
Neutral
- https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/retail-and-shopping-essential-data-and-insights
- https://www.pymnts.com/news/retail/2026/doordash-hands-brands-live-shelf-data-retail-insights/
- https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-halloween-survey-shows-consumer-spending-expected-to-reach-13-5-billion
- https://nrf.com/podcast/inside-this-years-halloween-spending-trends
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/costco-uber-doordash-nationwide-same-day-delivery-ecommerce/830874/
- https://www.retaildive.com/news/petco-learns-perils-overly-generous-loyalty-program/829664/
- https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/halloween-shoppers-are-shopping-early-seeking-low-cost-and-analog-options
- https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/most-americans-are-trying-to-save-money-and-its-changing-the-way-consumers-shop
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/kroger-giant-eagle-merger-retailstat-columbus-ohio/830461/
- https://www.grocerydive.com/news/the-friday-checkout-erewon-luxury-grocery-stores-high-food-prices/829630/
- https://chainstoreage.com/survey-holiday-shopping-begins-early-large-number-consumers